कोकण विधानसभा निवडणूक: सिंधुदुर्ग, रत्नागिरी, रायगड, पालघर जिल्ह्यात शिवसेना-भाजप गड राखणार का?

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Updated: Mon, 7 Oct 2019 (11:12 IST)

'कोकण म्हणजे शिवसेनेचा बालेकिल्ला', 'कोकण म्हणजे नारायण राणे'. कोकणातल्या राजकारणावर चर्चा करताना अशी बरीचशी वाक्यं क्रमानं येऊ लागतात. मात्र कधीकाळी काही प्रमाणात साधार असणारी ही वाक्यं, आजच्या स्थितीतही लागू होतात का? की काळानुरूप कोकणातली राजकीय स्थिती बदललीय?

महाराष्ट्राच्या विधानसभा निवडणुकांचं बिगुल वाजलं आणि राज्यभर पक्षांतराला आणखी जोर आला. सह्याद्रीच्या पलीकडे, म्हणजे कधी कोल्हापुरात तर कधी साताऱ्यात, कधी सोलापुरात तर कधी आणखी कुठे, पक्षांतरं होऊ लागली. मात्र, सह्याद्रीच्या कुशीत अर्थात कोकणात काहीशी शांतता होती.

कोकणात कोण पहिला क्रमांक लावणार, अशी दबक्या आवाजात चर्चा सुरू असतानाच, रत्नागिरीतल्या गुहागरचे विद्यमान आमदार भास्कर जाधव यांनी स्वगृही परतण्याचा निर्णय घेतला. 'मातोश्री'वर जात भास्कर जाधव यांनी मनगटावरचं 'घड्याळ' काढून 'शिवबंधन' गुरफटलं.

भास्कर जाधव पूर्वी शिवसेनेतच होते. मात्र 2004 साली गुहागरमध्ये विधानसभेला राष्ट्रवादीकडून पराभूत झाल्यानंतर जाधवांनी थेट राष्ट्रवादीतच प्रवेश केला. तिथं गेल्यानंतर त्यांना रत्नागिरीच्या पालकमंत्रिपदासह राज्यमंत्रिपदही मिळालं. पुढे राष्ट्रवादीचे प्रदेश कार्याध्यक्षही ते झाले. मात्र काही दिवसांपूर्वीच शिवसेनेत परत आले.

भास्कर जाधवांच्या रूपानं विधानसभेच्या तोंडावर कोकणात पक्षांतराचं नारळ फुटलं. आगे-मागे काही पक्षांतरं झाली, मात्र ती जाधवांइतक्या मोठ्या नेत्यांएवढं नव्हती.

त्यानंतर अर्थात सगळ्यांच्या नजरा तळकोकणाकडे वळल्या. म्हणजेच, सिंधुदुर्गात.

'कोकण म्हणजे नारायण राणे' हे जे गणित उर्वरित महाराष्ट्रात आहे, त्या गणिताचं मूळ सिंधुदुर्गात आहे. कारण सिंधुदुर्ग म्हणजे नारायण राणेचं होमग्राऊंड.

आधी शिवसेना, मग तिथून काँग्रेस, काँग्रेसनंतर महाराष्ट्र स्वाभिमान पक्षाची स्थापना आणि भाजपच्या समर्थनावर राज्यसभा खासदार, असा राणेंचा पक्षीय इतिहास राहिलाय. मात्र, आगामी विधानसभेला नारायण राणे काय निर्णय घेणार, याची उत्सुकता सिंधुदुर्ग आणि कोकणासह अवघ्या महाराष्ट्राला होती.

नारायण राणे हे विधानसभा लढवणार नाहीत, हे निश्चित होतं. मात्र त्यांचा मुलगा आणि सावंतवाडीचे काँग्रेस आमदार नितेश राणे रिंगणात उतरणार होते. त्यामुळे ते कोणत्या पक्षाचा झेंडा हाती घेतात, याकडे सगळ्यांचं लक्ष होतं.

अखेर अर्ज भरण्याची मुदत जवळ आल्यानंतर नितेश राणेंनी भाजपमध्ये प्रवेश केला आणि कणकवलीतून उमेदवारी अर्जही दाखल केला. मात्र, इथेच ठिणगी पडली. कोकणातल्या राजकारणाला रंगत येते, ती इथूनच.

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कोकणात शिवसेनेचंच प्राबल्य

या चारही जिल्ह्यात एकूण तीन लोकसभा मतदारसंघ आहेत. रत्नागिरी-सिंधुदुर्ग, रायगड आणि मावळ. मात्र यातल्या मावळ लोकसभा मतदारसंघातले तीन विधानसभा मतदारसंघ पुणे जिल्ह्यात येतात. त्यामुळं तसा तो अर्धाच मतदारसंघ कोकणात येतो.

यातल्या रत्नागिरी-सिंधुदुर्गात विनायक राऊत (शिवसेना), रायगडमध्ये सुनील तटकरे (राष्ट्रवादी) आणि मावळमध्ये श्रीरंग बारणे (शिवसेना) असे खासदार आहेत. म्हणजेच, लोकसभा मतदारसंघांवर शिवसेनेचा वरचष्मा आहे.

तर सिंधुदुर्ग, रत्नागिरी, रायगड आणि पालघर या चार जिल्ह्यात मिळून 21 विधानसभा मतदारसंघ आहेत. 2014 सालच्या निवडणुकीच्या निकालाचा विचार केला असता, शिवसेनेचेच आमदार सर्वाधिक असल्याची आकडेवारी सांगते.

पक्ष आणि आमदारांची संख्या - 2014विधानसभा निवडणूक

शिवसेना - 10

राष्ट्रवादी - 3

शेतकरी कामगार पक्ष - 2

बहुजन विकास आघाडी - 3

भाजप - 2

काँग्रेस - 1

यातल्याही राष्ट्रवादीचे गुहागरचे आमदार भास्कर जाधव आणि श्रीवर्धनचे आमदार अवधूत तटकरे यांनी शिवसेनेत प्रवेश केलाय, तर काँग्रेसचे एकमेव आमदार असलेल्या नितेश राणेंनी भाजपमध्ये प्रवेश केलाय.

एकूणच कोकणतल्या या चार जिल्ह्यांची आजची स्थिती पाहिल्यास, मग ते खासदार असो वा आमदार, संख्याबळानुसार इथं शिवसेनेचंच प्राबल्य दिसून येतं. मात्र गेल्या पाच वर्षात राजकीय स्थिती बऱ्याच अंशांनी बदलली आहे. त्यामुळं सद्यस्थिती काय आहे, हे पाहणंही महत्त्वाचं ठरेल.

पाहूया कोकणातील सिंधुदुर्ग, रत्नागिरी, रायगड आणि पालघर या चार जिल्ह्यांमधल्या राजकारणाची सद्यस्थिती :

सिंधुदुर्ग : राणे विरुद्ध शिवसेना

कोकणातील सर्वांत तळाचा जिल्हा म्हणजे सिंधुदुर्ग. तळकोकण म्हणून जो महाराष्ट्राला परिचित आहे तो हाच परिसर. राज्यातील इतर जिल्ह्यांच्या तुलनेत सिंधुदुर्गाची लोकसंख्या कमी आहे. त्यामुळं इथं विधानसभा मतदारसंघही कमी आहेत. कणकवली, कुडाळ आणि सावंतवाडी असे तीन विधानसभा मतदारसंघ सिंधुदुर्गात येतात.

2014 सालचा निकाल

कणकवली - नितेश राणे (काँग्रेस)

कुडाळ - वैभव नाईक (शिवसेना)

सावंतवाडी - दीपक केसरकर (शिवसेना)

सिंधुदुर्गातील तिन्ही मतदारसंघांचा 2014 सालचा निकाल पाहता जिल्ह्यात शिवसेनेचं वर्चस्व दिसून येतं. यंदा स्थिती किचकट बनली आहे. याचं कारण सिंधुदुर्गात शिवसेनेचे प्रमुख विरोधक नारायण राणे राहिले आहेत. मात्र आता नारायण राणे हे भाजपचं समर्थन घेऊन राज्यसभा खासदार बनले आहेत.

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दुसरीकडे नारायण राणे यांचे पुत्र नितेश राणे यांनी भाजपमध्ये प्रवेश केला असून, ते कणकवलीतून उमेदवारही आहेत. त्यामुळं इथं युतीत वितुष्ट निर्माण झालंय.

युतीच्या फॉर्म्युल्यानुसार कणकवली भाजपच्या वाट्याला आणि कुडाळ व सावंतवाडी हे दोन मतदारसंघ शिवसेनेच्या वाट्याला आलेत. कणकवलीतून भाजपनं नितेश राणेंना तिकीट दिल्यानं शिवसेनेनं आक्षेप घेतला आणि तिथं युतीधर्म बाजूला सारत सतीश सावंत यांना त्यांच्या विरोधात उमेदवारी दिलीय.

यावर भाजपचे सिंधुदुर्ग जिल्हाध्यक्ष प्रमोद जठार बीबीसी मराठीशी बोलताना म्हणाले, "युतीच्या फॉर्म्युल्यात कणकवलीची जागा भाजपच्या वाट्याला आलीय. मग नितेश राणे हे आम्ही उमेदवार दिलेत. आता शिवसेनेचं म्हणणं आहे की, राणेंना उमेदवारी द्यायची नाही. आता आमचं तिकीट कुणाला द्यायचं हे आमचे पक्षश्रेष्ठी ठरवतात, शिवसैनिक थोडं ठरवणार? तिकीट राणेंना दिलं की जठारांना दिलं, याबाबत सेनेला काय करायचंय?"

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मात्र, शिवसेनेचे रत्नागिरी-सिंधुदुर्गचे खासदार विनायक राऊत म्हणतात, "सिंधुदुर्गात आम्ही भाजपच्या विरोधात नाही. मात्र ज्यानं शिवसेनाप्रमुखांशी बेईमानी केलीय (त्यांचा इशारा नारायण राणेंकडे आहे), बाळासाहेबांवर गलिच्छ आरोप केलेत, अशा माणसाचा शिवसेना प्रचार करणार नाही, हे भाजपच्या वरिष्ठ नेत्यांना विनंतीपूर्वक कळवलं होतं."

शिवाय, "आम्ही नितेश राणेच्या विरोधात उभे आहोत, भारतीय जनता पक्षाच्या विरोधात नाही. आम्हाला मोदी, शाह, फडणवीस आणि प्रमोद जठार या सर्वांबद्दल आदर आहे," असंही विनायक राऊत बीबीसी मराठीशी बोलताना म्हणाले.

मात्र, शिवसेनेनं कणकवलीत भाजपचे उमेदवार नितेश राणेंबद्दल उमेदवार दिल्यानं भाजपनं शिवसेनेला प्रत्युत्तर दिलंय. कुडाळमध्ये वैभव नाईक यांच्याविरोधात दत्ता सामंत यांना, तर सावंतवाडीत दीपक केसरकर यांच्याविरोधात राजन तेली यांना भाजपनं पाठिंबा दिलाय.

एकूणच सिंधुदुर्गातील तिन्ही मतदारसंघात तुल्यबळ लढती होणार असल्याचे चित्र आहे. मात्र, 'राणे विरूद्ध शिवसेना' या संघर्षात सिंधुदुर्गमध्ये युती असून नसल्यासारखी स्थिती आहे.

स्वत: प्रमोद जठार बीबीसी मराठीशी बोलताना म्हणाले, "सिंधुदुर्गात युती नसल्यासारखी स्थिती. याची सुरुवात शिवसेनेनं केली. कुडाळ, सावंतवाडीतले AB फॉर्म आमच्याकडे पण होते, पण भाजप प्रदेशाध्यक्ष चंद्रकांतदादांनी सांगितलं की, आपण एबी फॉर्म द्यायचे नाही. आम्ही युती धर्माचं पालन केलंय."

आता विधानसभेचे निकालच सिंधुदुर्गात राणेंचा दबदबा की शिवसेनेचं वर्चस्व ठरवतील.

रत्नागिरी : शिवसेनेचं वर्चस्व असलेला जिल्हा

दापोली, गुहागर, चिपळूण, रत्नागिरी आणि राजापूर अशा पाच विधानसभा मतदारसंघांचा रत्नागिरी जिल्ह्यात समावेश आहे.

रत्नागिरीतल्या बहुतांश राजकीय लढती या 'शिवसेना विरूद्ध राष्ट्रवादी' अशाच राहिल्या आहेत. त्यामुळं 2014 सालीही हीच स्थिती पाहावयास मिळाली होती. 2014 साली रत्नागिरीत राष्ट्रवादीचे दोन, तर शिवसेनेचे तीन आमदार निवडून आले होते.

2014 सालचा निकाल

दापोली - संजय कदम (राष्ट्रवादी)

गुहागर - भास्कर जाधव (राष्ट्रवादी)

चिपळूण - सदानंद चव्हाण (शिवसेना)

रत्नागिरी - उदय सामंत (शिवसेना)

राजापूर - राजन साळवी (शिवसेना)

काही दिवसांपूर्वीच राष्ट्रवादीचे माजी कार्याध्यक्ष आणि माजी मंत्री भास्कर जाधव यांनी राष्ट्रवादीला सोडचिठ्ठी देत शिवसेनेत प्रवेश केला. त्यामुळे आता रत्नागिरी जिल्ह्यात संजय कदम यांच्या रूपानं राष्ट्रवादीचा एकच आमदार उरला आहे.

रत्नागिरीत एकूणच शिवसेनेचं वर्चस्व मोठ्या प्रमाणात पाहायला मिळतं, आमदारसंख्येवरून हे स्पष्ट दिसून येतं. आता भास्कर जाधवांनी शिवसेनेत प्रवेश केल्यानं पक्षाची ताकद आणखी वाढल्याचं चित्र आहे.

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मात्र, सिंधुदुर्गात 'राणे विरूद्ध शिवसेना' हा संघर्ष या निवडणुकीत उघडपणे पुन्हा एकदा समोर आल्यानं त्याचा परिणाम रत्नागिरीत जाणवेल का, असे प्रश्न अनेकजण उपस्थित करतात. मात्र, यावर ज्येष्ठ पत्रकार सतीश कामत म्हणतात, "कणकवलीतल्या समीकरणांचा बाजूच्या जिल्ह्यात म्हणजे रत्नागिरीत सुद्धा फरक पडणार नाही. इतर महाराष्ट्रात तर काहीच संबंध नाही."

राणेंचा मुद्दा रत्नागिरीत लागू होत नसला, तरी रत्नागिरीत मतदारसंघनिहाय वेगवेगळे प्रभावी मुद्दे आणि सोबत राजकीय समीकरणं नक्कीच दिसून येतात.

कोणते मुद्दे महत्त्वाचे?

रत्नागिरी म्हटल्यावर सध्या महाराष्ट्रात नाणार प्रकल्प त्वरित नजरेसमोर येतो. मात्र, रत्नागिरीतील वरिष्ठ पत्रकार सचिन देसाई सांगतात, "नाणारचा मुद्दा हा कोकणच्या दृष्टीनं महत्त्वाचा असला, तरी मतांच्या दृष्टीनं केवळ राजापूर मतदारसंघापुरता मर्यादित आहे. रत्नागिरीच्या इतर भागात हा मुद्दा प्रभावशाली ठरणार नाही."

"नाणारला राजापुरातील स्थानिकांचा अजूनही मोठा विरोध आहे आणि शिवसेनेचा नाणारला जाहीर विरोध असल्यानं त्याचा फायदा त्यांना नक्कीच मिळेल." असं सचिन देसाई सांगतात.

"रत्नागिरी विधानसभा मतदारसंघातून शिवसेनेचे उदय सामंत उमेदवार आहेत. मात्र, त्यांच्यासमोर आव्हान देणारा उमेदवारच नाहीये. त्यामुळं इथं शिवसेना सहज जिंकेल, अशी स्थिती आहे." असं सचिन देसाई सांगतात.

तिवरे धरण फुटल्याचा काय परिणाम होईल?

चिपळूणमधून शिवसेनेचे सदानंद चव्हाण तर राष्ट्रवादीकडून शेखर निकम उमेदवार आहेत. या मतदारसंघाबाबत सचिन देसाई सांगतात, "चिपळूण मतदारसंघात मात्र शिवसेनेला कठीण जाणार आहे. कारण तिवरे धरण फुटल्यानं लोकांमध्ये रोष आहे. कारण तिवरे धरण बांधणाराच शिवसेनेचा उमेदवार आहे. शिवाय, राष्ट्रवादीचे शेखर निकम यांच्यासारखा कणखर उमेदवार आहे."

सदानंद चव्हाण हे तिवरे धरणाचे कंत्राटदार होते. त्यांच्या कंपनीने हे धरण बांधलं होतं पण 15 वर्षांपूर्वीच हे धरण संबंधित विभागाकडे हस्तांतरित केल्याचं त्यांनी बीबीसी मराठीला सांगितलं होतं.

रत्नागिरीतले उर्वरित दोन मतदारसंघ म्हणजे गुहागर आणि दापोली मतदारसंघ.

"गुहागरमध्ये विद्यमान आमदार भास्कर जाधव हे शिवसेनेत दाखल झालेत. त्यांच्यासमोर विशेष आव्हान नाही. बाजूचा मतदारसंघ दापोली आहे. तिथं रामदास कदमांचा मुलगा योगेश कदम यांना तिकीट देण्यात आलंय. राष्ट्रवादीच्या संजय कदमांचं त्यांना आव्हान आहे. मात्र योगेश कदमांनी गेल्या तीन-चार वर्षांपासून खूप मेहनत घेतलीय, जनसंपर्क वाढवलाय, त्यामुळं योगेश कदमांना फायदा होईल," असं सचिन देसाई सांगतात.

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रत्नागिरीमध्ये ज्याप्रकारे नाणारचा मुद्दा राजापूरपुरता का होईना, महत्त्वाचा ठरणार आहे. त्याचप्रमाणे मुंबई-गोवा महार्गाचा मुद्दाही महत्त्वाचा असेल.

"मुंबई गोवा महामार्गाचा प्रश्न अनेक वर्षांपासून रखडलेला आहे.ते काम कधी पूर्ण होणार ही इथल्या रत्नागिरीकरांची अनेक वर्षांची खंत आहे. अनेक निवडणुकांमध्ये हा मुद्दा आलाय, याही निवडणुकीत येईल, यात शंका नाही." असं सचिन देसाई सांगतात.

रायगड : कुणाही एकाचं वर्चस्व नसलेला जिल्हा

रायगड जिल्ह्यात पनवेल, कर्जत, उरण, पेण, अलिबाग, श्रीवर्धन आणि महाड असे सात विधानसभा मतदारसंघ येतात. यातले तीन मतदारसंघ मावळ लोकसभा मतदारसंघात, तर उर्वरित चार रायगड मतदारसंघात समाविष्ट होतात.

शिवसेना, राष्ट्रवादी काँग्रेस आणि शेकापचं प्राबल्य असलेल्या या जिल्ह्यात आता भाजपही वाढताना दिसतेय.

2014 सालचा निकाल

पनवेल - प्रशांत ठाकूर (भाजप)

कर्जत - सुरेश लाड (राष्ट्रवादी काँग्रेस)

श्रीवर्धन - अवधूत तटकरे (राष्ट्रवादी)

उरण - मनोहर भोईर (शिवसेना)

महाड - भरत गोगावले (शिवसेना)

पेण - धैर्यशील पाटील (शेकाप)

अलिबाग - पंडित पाटील (शेकाप)

2014 साली श्रीवर्धन आणि कर्जत या दोन मतदारसंघात राष्ट्रवादीनं बाजी मारली. मात्र, त्यातील श्रीवर्धनचे आमदार आणि राष्ट्रवादीचे प्रदेशाध्यक्ष सुनील तटकरे यांचे पुतणे अवधूत तटकरे यांनी काही दिवसांपूर्वीच शिवसेनेत प्रवेश केला आहे.

कुठल्याच पक्षाचं एकहाती वर्चस्व रायगडमध्ये दिसून येत नसलं, तरी सध्या माजी मंत्री आणि विद्यमान खासदार सुनील तटकरे यांचं प्राबल्य असलेला जिल्हा अशी महाराष्ट्रात ओळख निर्माण झाली आहे. असं असलं तरी राष्ट्रवादी काँग्रेसचा जिल्ह्यावर वरचष्मा असल्याचं आमदारांच्या संख्येवरून दिसून येत नाही.

इथल्या निवडणुकीतले प्रचाराचे मुद्देही अत्यंत मुलभूत समस्यांचे असल्याचे दिसते.

रायगडमधील मुद्दे

"रस्ते, पाणी, शिक्षण, आरोग्य या अगदी मुलभूत समस्या आजही रायगड जिल्ह्यातील अनेक तालुक्यांमध्ये भेडसावत आहेत. दोन-दोन टर्म प्रत्येक मतदारसंघात एकच आमदार आहे. मात्र, कुणीही या समस्यांवर कायमचा उपाय शोधण्याचा प्रयत्न करताना दिसत नाही. या समस्यांभोवती संपूर्ण निवडणूक फिरली नाही, तरी हे मुद्दे नक्कीच केंद्रस्थानी असतील," असं रायगडमधील वरिष्ठ पत्रकार मिलिंद अष्टिवकर सांगतात.

"बेरोजगारी हा रायगड जिल्ह्यातील ज्वलंत प्रश्न आहे. महाड, धाटाव आणि रसायनी अशा तीन एमआयडीसी रायगड जिल्ह्यात आहेत. मात्र तरीही इथला तरूणवर्ग मुंबई-पुण्यासारख्या शहरांकडे वळताना दिसतोय. इथल्या एमआयडीसींमध्ये बहुतांश वेळा कायमच्या कामागारांऐवजी कंत्राट पद्धतीवर कामगार भरले जात आहेत आणि यावर कुठलाच लोकप्रतिनिधी बोलत नाही," असं मिलिंद अष्टिवकर सांगतात.

"मुंबईच्या इतक्या जवळ हा जिल्हा असूनही शिक्षण आणि आरोग्यासाठी आजही कोसो दूर जावं लागतं. जी व्यवस्था आहे, ती खासगी आहे," असं अष्टिवकर सांगतात.

पालघर : सहापैकी चार मतदारसंघ राखीव

आदिवासी जिल्हा म्हणून पालघरची महाराष्ट्रात ओळख आहे. पालघरमध्ये सहा विधानसभा मतदारसंघ येतात. यातील नालासोपारा आणि वसई हे दोन शहरी मतदारसंघ वगळता, डहाणू, विक्रमगड, पालघर, बोईसर हे चार मतदारसंघ अनुसूचित जमातींसाठी राखीव आहेत.

काँग्रेसमधून भाजपमध्ये आणि भाजपमधून शिवसेनेत गेलेले राजेंद्र गावित हे पालघरचे खासदार आहेत. पालघर लोकसभा पोटनिवडणुकीत भाजप विजयी झालं होतं. त्यामुळं भाजपनं आपली ताकद दाखवून दिली होती. मात्र, आता राजेंद्र गावित शिवसेनेच्या तिकिटावर खासदार आहेत. त्यामुळं शिवसेनाही पालघरमध्ये पाय रोवून उभी आहे.

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पालघरमध्ये खासदार शिवसेनेचा असला, तरी जिल्ह्यातील सातही मतदारसंघात कुणा एका पक्षाचा वरचष्मा दिसून येत नाही.

2014 सालचा निकाल

डाहाणू - पास्कल धनारे (भाजप)

विक्रमगड - विष्णू सवरा (भाजप)

पालघर - अमित घोडा (शिवसेना)

बोईसर - विलास तरे (बविआ)

नालासोपारा - क्षितिज ठाकूर (बविआ)

वसई - हितेंद्र ठाकूर (बविआ)

एकूणच पालघरमध्ये कुणा एका पक्षाचं वर्चस्व दिसत नाही. भाजप, शिवसेना आणि बहुजन विकास आघाडी या तीन पक्षांचं विशेष प्राबल्य दिसून येतं.

या सहा मतदारसंघांपैकी डहाणू, विक्रमगड, बोईसर आणि पालघर मतदारसंघाचा काही भाग हा ग्रामीण आहे, तर नालासोपारा आणि वसई हे दोन शहरी भाग आहेत. त्यामुळं वसई आणि पालघरमध्ये बहुजन विकास आघाडीचं प्राबल्य दिसतं. कारण या दोन शहरातल्या महापालिकांवरही या पक्षाचं वर्षानुवर्षे वर्चस्व राहिलंय.